APRIL 20 IS COMING — A PLAIN SPOKEN, URGENT GUIDE TO WHAT COULD HAPPEN NEXT

1  Why April 20 Demands Our Attention

On Inauguration Day 2025, President Donald Trump signed Executive Order 01‑25, declaring a national emergency at the southern border. In that order he tasked Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth with returning, within 90 days, a plan for achieving “complete operational control” of the border—including a recommendation on whether to invoke the Insurrection Act of 1807. Ninety days later falls on April 20, 2025.

The Insurrection Act empowers a president to deploy active‑duty U.S. troops for domestic law‑enforcement without a governor’s consent and without immediate judicial or congressional review. It has been invoked fewer than thirty times in more than two centuries, and never for immigration control. By design, it is a last resort. The fact that it sits openly on the table should concern anyone who cares about civilian rule and constitutional balance.

2  A Brief, Sober History of the Insurrection Act

  • 1807  Signed by President Jefferson to help the young republic suppress armed, localized revolts.

  • 1957 – 1963  Used by Presidents Eisenhower and Kennedy to enforce desegregation in Little Rock, Oxford, and Tuscaloosa when segregationist governors blockaded schools.

  • 1968  Invoked by President Johnson after widespread unrest following Dr. King’s assassination.

  • 1992  Invoked by President George H. W. Bush, at California’s request, to quell lethal riots in Los Angeles.

Across 218 years the Act has served as an extraordinary measure for extraordinary circumstances—typically large‑scale unrest or defiance of constitutional rights. It has never been used to police immigration or to consolidate power for political purposes. Stretching it for border enforcement would be historically unprecedented and legally contested.

3  The Guardrails That Used to Exist—and Why They Matter Now

During the nationwide protests of June 2020, President Trump threatened to invoke the Insurrection Act. Senior advisers—Attorney General William Barr, Defense Secretary Mark Esper, and Joint Chiefs Chairman General Mark Milley—strongly objected. Trump ultimately mobilized National Guard units but did not activate the Act. In private, he later called that retreat one of his greatest regrets.

Those restraining voices are gone. The current Cabinet is composed of loyalists who have publicly embraced rapid, force‑focused executive action. President Trump has repeatedly signaled that, if faced with unrest or mass migration, he does not intend to “wait” this time.  This shift in personnel and rhetoric removes critical guardrails that once slowed a rush toward martial measures.

4  Weighing the Likelihood: A Balanced Assessment

No one outside the Oval Office knows whether President Trump will sign an Insurrection Act order on April 20. However, we can identify pressures that push him toward action and counter‑pressures that might restrain him.

Pressures Toward Invocation

Counter‑Pressures Toward Restraint

Formal report explicitly presents the option.

Potential market shock and political backlash early in term.

Loyal Cabinet prepared to implement quickly.

Absence of a single, triggering national crisis.

Border confrontations provide vivid imagery for supporters.

Risk that deployment sparks nationwide protests and resignations among senior officers.

Legal hurdle is low: statute leaves necessity to presidential discretion.

Missteps by deployed troops could define his legacy and erode public support.

Scholars of authoritarian studies and civil‑military relations currently estimate roughly a fifty‑fifty chance that the Insurrection Act is used at some point in this term. Whether that moment arrives on April 20 or later will likely depend on real‑time border events, internal polling, and the reaction President Trump anticipates from Congress, the courts, and the streets.

5  What Invocation Would Look Like—Step by Step

  1. Proclamation to Disperse  The President issues a brief public statement ordering specified “unlawful actors” to stand down. This fulfills 10 U.S.C. §254.

  2. Federalization of Guard Units  National Guard units transition from governor control to federal control. Active‑duty forces can be flown in within 24 hours.

  3. Posse Comitatus Suspended  The 1878 statute that bars soldiers from civil policing is overridden. Troops may perform arrests, checkpoints, and crowd control.

  4. Limited Immediate Judicial Review  Historically, courts defer to the President’s judgment in real time, addressing legality only after the fact.

The result is a sudden expansion of federal power on U.S. soil, executed largely at the President’s discretion.

6  Preparing Without Panic—A Civic Checklist

Preparation is responsible citizenship, not alarmism. Below is a phased plan for individuals, organizations, and local governments.

a.  Stay Informed and Combat Misinformation

  • Share reputable explainers (ACLU, Brennan Center) that define the Insurrection Act and its limits.

  • Verify breaking news through multiple sources before forwarding.

b.  Strengthen Digital and Physical Security

  • Use Signal for messaging and enable two‑factor authentication on all accounts.

  • Store copies of IDs, essential medications, cash, and an emergency contact list in a secure yet accessible place.

c.  Legal and Rapid‑Response Networks

  • Know the National Lawyers Guild hotline for your area and write it down.

  • Local bar associations can organize pro bono teams ready to file emergency motions if rights violations occur.

d.  Mutual Aid and Community Resilience

  • Form neighborhood “pods” to check on vulnerable residents, share supplies, and disseminate accurate information.

  • Develop backup childcare, transportation, and elder‑care plans in case normal services are disrupted.

e.  Non‑Violent Civic Action

  • Historically, disciplined peaceful demonstrations have constrained overreach more effectively than scattered unrest.

  • Train volunteer marshals who can keep protests orderly and document any misconduct by authorities.

f.  Engage Local Officials Early

  • Ask governors, mayors, and sheriffs to state publicly whether they will cooperate with or contest domestic military deployments.

  • Encourage state attorneys general to prepare legal challenges where federal action exceeds statutory bounds.

7  What to Watch on—or Immediately After—April 20

  1. Language of the Report  Does it explicitly recommend Insurrection Act authority, or does it hedge? The wording will reveal the administration’s appetite for escalation.

  2. Presidential Proclamation  If a proclamation appears, the clock moves quickly. Federalization could occur within hours.

  3. Military Posture Statements  Public statements by the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs or major‑command generals will signal how the armed forces interpret their role.

  4. Market and Congressional Reactions  Sharp financial volatility or bipartisan criticism could influence whether the White House doubles down or pauses.

8  If Nothing Happens—Why Preparation Still Matters

Should April 20 pass without an invocation, the underlying conditions remain: a flexible statute, a willing Cabinet, and an executive predisposed toward force. Preparedness is therefore not wasted effort; it is an investment in civic resilience at a moment when democratic norms are under visible strain.

9  Emotional Reality: Facing Fear Without Freezing

It is natural to feel anxiety when emergency powers hover over everyday life. Fear becomes dangerous only when it silences us. Turning concern into readiness—learning our rights, strengthening community ties, and committing to non‑violent action—transforms fear into collective resolve. History shows that when ordinary people unite calmly and persistently for constitutional principles, overreach meets resistance and is often curtailed.

10  Conclusion: Holding the Line Together

The possibility that a president might invoke the Insurrection Act to manage immigration rather than insurrection is a constitutional stress test. Whether or not April 20 becomes a decisive day, we have an obligation to remain vigilant, informed, and engaged.

We owe it to one another—and to future generations—to ensure that extraordinary powers stay where they belong: in the glass case marked Break Only for Genuine Catastrophe. Whatever unfolds, let us meet it not with panic, but with disciplined solidarity, ready to defend both safety and freedom without sacrificing either.

In solidarity,

Niki Hurtado

TCDCC Chair

Further Reading and Resources

Tuolumne County Democrats